On a tons per day basis, shipments were 143.5, higher down 2.5% m/m. On a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis, year to date, (YTD) year on year, (y/y) comparison, total carbon steel shipments increased by 5.8%. Bar & shapes and structural shipments led the advance, each recording double-digits percentage increases.
Table 1 shows percentage change results for shipments, daily intake and inventory level. In all cases the percentage change references 3MMA year on year (y/y). For shipments and inventory, three columns of data are listed offering 12, 24 and 36 month changes. All products groups posted year on year increases except Pipe & Tube in shipments on a 3MMA y/y basis. Bar & Shapes recorded the strongest growth y/y, up 18.2%, 3MMA y/y. Structurals, (> or = 3 inch) 3MMA y/y shipments grew by 11.3%. Plate shipments were up 9.2% 3MMA y/y, as Sheet deliveries moved-up, 4.2%, 3MMA y/y. Pipe & Tube shipments were flat 3MMA y/y. Bar and Shapes shipments had a strong month helped by a 32.5%, 3MMA y/y surge in alloy bar shipments, an 18.1%, 3MMA y/y bump for cold finished and a 20.0% increase in special bar quality, (SBQ). Merchant bars shipments posted an increase of 2.8%, 3MMA y/y.
Figure 1 shows the shipment history for all carbon steel from 2014 to present. After declining through most of 2014 and 2015, shipments largely plateaued in 2016. Shipments have generally trended higher in 2017 and with intake and inventories increasing the trend should continue in 2018.
Overall inventory levels moved-up 8.4%, 3MMA y/y, as pipe & tube inventory fell 0.2% y/y. Sheet inventory was up 8.1% and Structural inventory was higher by 10.1% y/y. Inventory jumped by 12.3% y/y for Bar & Shapes and was higher by 12.1% y/y for plate. Months on hand stood at 2.37 overall on a 3MMA look, ranging from a low of 2.27 for sheet products to a high of 2.87 for plate.
Intake was higher across the board, up 16.1%, 3MMA y/y. Structurals intake surged by 24.3%, followed by a 23.5% jump for Plate. Bar and Shapes also has shown strong intake, up 17.4% on a 3MMA basis. Sheet intake moved higher by 16.1%, while Pipe & Tube intake grew by 9.5%, while
At Gerdau we scrutinize the MSCI release every month searching for clues on the industry’s performance. It’s important to us as a significant supplier of long steel products to our service center customers. It’s equally important to keep our steel consuming consumers informed.