September 2017

Advanced Durable Goods Orders

After a disappointing month in July, August advanced durable goods orders rebounded in August rising 1.7%. On a year to date, (YTD) year on year, (y/y) comparison, DG increased by 5.1%. The change this month was mainly in the non-defense aircraft segment. However, the critical non-defense capital goods orders segment posted a 0.9% month on [...]

U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing fundamentals continue to improve. Both the U.S. and global economy are strengthening and at the same time, the dollar has depreciated against the Broad Index, (basket of countries’ currencies that the U.S trades with). In addition, inventories that were previously seen as a drag on production have now shifted to a supporting role. Manufacturing [...]

U.S. Industrial Production

After six consecutive monthly gains, the Industrial production declined 0.9% month on month, (m/m) in August. Early indications are that hurricane Harvey’s impact reduced the score by 0.75 percentage point. Manufacturing industries most effected by the wind and flooding damage include; petroleum refining, organic chemicals and plastics and resins. Mining output slowed by 0.8% in [...]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing composite index moved-up 1.2 points in August to 55.3, a nice turn-a-round after July’s disappointing 3.5 point drop. The results were generally positive, as new orders and employment both improved. The trade details were mixed. New exports orders rose while imports fell. The non-manufacturing index is important to keep an [...]

ISM Manufacturing Index

Manufacturing is picking-up according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management. The Purchasers Manger’s Index posted a score of 58.8, up 2.5 points month on month, (m/m) surpassing analysts’ expectations. The new order sub index was north of 60 for the fourth month in a row. Twelve of 18 industries reported growth [...]

August 2017

U.S. Manufacturing Inventory Census Report

Total seasonally adjusted (SA), non-inflation adjusted manufacturing inventories totaled $649,086 million (M) at the end of June, up 0.16% month on month, (m/m) and up 4.78% year on year, (y/y). The total manufacturing inventories to shipment ratio, (I/S) was up 0.01 to 1.38 m/m and up 0.03 percentage points y/y. The US Census Bureau issues [...]

Advanced Durable Goods Orders

Overall, durable goods orders have improved, up 4.6% year on year, (y/y). However for the month of July, new orders tumbled 6.8% month on month, (m/m), largely as a function of sharply reduced non-defense aircraft, autos and machine orders. If transportation orders are excluded, orders were up by 0.5% and were 6.9% higher y/y. The [...]

U.S. Manufacturing Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing capacity utilization (MCU), came in at 75.4% in July, flat month on month (m/m), up 0.5 percentage point year on year (y/y). Year to date (YTD), MCU has kept to a very narrow range (75.1% to 75.8%), averaging 75.5%. Figure 1, charts capacity utilization from 2010 to present. We are currently in the green [...]

U.S. Industrial Production

The IP index recorded a value of 105.47 in July, up 0.2% month on month (m/m) and by 0.9% year on year (y/y). July’s score was slightly lower than analysts’ consensus expectations. July was the sixth month in a row with either a flat or positive m/m gain. The increasing trend is welcome news for [...]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing composite index fell back more than analysts expected in July, dropping 3.5 percentage points to 53.9. Most economists expect non-manufacturing to pick-up over the next several months since consumer spending remains robust and construction activity is holding-up well. On a 3 month moving average basis (3MMA), the index scored [...]