February 2018

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The pace of U.S. economic growth moved sideways in January as the CFNAI ticked down +0.12 from a +0.14 score in December. On a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis the CFNAI fell-back to +0.17. This was the fifth consecutive month of positive readings on a 3MMA basis, the first time since 2014 that a [...]

Consumer Confidence

The Consumer confidence index surged 6.5 points in February according to the Conference Board. The index now stands at 130.8, its highest level in a year. Business conditions are reportedly strong and consumers feel good about the job market and the economy. On a year over year comparison, the 3MMA composite index was up 14.7 [...]

Automotive Sales

Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), shows that total light (cars and light truck/SUVs), vehicle sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, (SAAR) of 18.237 million (M), units, up 383,000 units or 2.1% from November. On a three month moving average (3MMA), basis sales were tracking at 18.178M, down 1.2% [...]

Consumer Credit

Total consumer credit increased by $18.4 billion, (B) in December, below the consensus estimate of $20B. Non-revolving credit advanced by $13.3B while revolving credit moved-up by $5.3B. November’s consumer credit was revised upwards by $2B to $30B essentially offsetting the miss in December. On a percentage year on year basis, consumer credit increased at an [...]

Employment: Initial, Continuous Jobless Claims and Net Job Creation

Seasonally adjusted, (SA) initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 9,000 to 221,000. The four week moving average (4WMA) was 224,000, 17.0% lower than for the same period last year. Moody’s economist project an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of the year as layoffs are low and hiring remains firm. Continuous claims as [...]

Employment by Industry

The economy created 148,000 jobs in January, 38.5% of these were in the Goods producing industries and 61.5% in Service providing sector. The total number of seasonally adjusted (SA), non-farm people employed in the U.S. in January was 147.810 million (M), an increase of 0.14% month on month, (m/m). Over the past 12 months the [...]

The Baltic Dry Index

The three month moving average (3MMA), of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), for January fell 5.7% to 1,413 month on month (m/m). On a 3MMA year on year basis, (y/y), the BDI was 40.8% higher. The BDI has averaged 1,175 over the past 12 months, ranging from a low of 759 in February to a [...]

Oil and Gas Rotary Rig Counts

Active U.S. rigs climbed for the second week in a row per Baker Hughes. The total number of operating rigs in the U.S. the week as of February 2nd was 946, 765 oil and 181 gas. In percentage terms, on a month on month, (m/m) basis, oil rigs were up 3.1%, (+23 rigs) and gas [...]

Currency Report

The dollar Broad Index posted a reading of 94.35 on February 2nd, its lowest point since June 2015. Over the past 12 months, the dollar broad index has ranged between 94.35, (today) and 101.88, (February 2017). On a twelve moving average, (12MMA) year on year, (y/y) comparison, the dollar was down 8.6% against the Broad [...]

January 2018

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence increased in January as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Composite Index rose by 2.3 points to 125.4, following a decline in December. On a three month moving average, (3MMA) the composite index measured 125.7, up 0.3 point month on month (m/m). On a year over year comparison, the 3MMA composite index was up [...]