The Bureau of Economic Analysis, (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and back dated it to Q1 2005. Last week the data was updated through Q2 2016. Even though we might consider this to be historically “old” we think it’s worth reporting because it is a foundation for where we are now. The data is published quarterly and is reported in chained 2009 seasonally adjusted dollars. Table 1 shows the growth of regional GDP in chained 2009 dollars quarter on quarter. The definition of a recession is two or more quarters back to back with negative growth. Three regions were in recession in the second half of 2012.
The BEA produces a map of the United States showing quarter on quarter growth by state within each region. We have included here the map for Q2, (Figure 1) to show the difference by state which is very significant.
Regions as defined by the BEA are as follows;
New England; Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Mideast; Delaware, DC, Maryland, New jersey, New York, Pennsylvania.
Great Lakes; Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin.
Plains; Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota.
South East; Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi,
North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.
South West; Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
Rocky Mountain; Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming.
Far West; Alaska, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Washington.
In the 2nd Q of 2016, the Far West had the highest growth rate at 0.5% the South West was the only region with negative growth. The South West region flipped from the highest growth rate in Q1 2015 to negative growth in Q2 2015 and has had negative growth in three of the last five quarters reported as shown in Figure 2.
The U.S. values in this report are quite a bit different and lower that the official report published in the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) reports partly because the GDP-by-state numbers exclude Federal military and civilian activity located overseas (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The official quarterly report of national GDP is also annualized which as we always report in our quarterly analysis increases the value by a factor of four.